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09/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After the first Five-Star play of the season proved victorious (Arkansas State plus the points at Auburn), let's roll with another Sun Belt Conference squad, this time against a Big East foe.
Florida International hosts Rutgers just one year after dropping a 23-15 decision to the Scarlet Knights in New Jersey. The Golden Panthers covered the spread with 15 fourth-quarter points after trailing 23-0.
Rutgers scored just one offensive touchdown the entire contest while picking up 10 of its 23 points off FIU turnovers. In addition, Tom Savage completed only 11-of-28 passes for 185 yards and the Scarlet Knights' quarterback was also sacked four times.
Fast-forward to this season and Savage is right back where he was a year ago with a 10-of-19 performance for just 148 yards in last week's matchup with Norfolk State. The sophomore signal-caller was sacked three times by the Spartans, who trailed by only six points (6-0) at the half.
The Rutgers offensive line, which features three new starters, still needs a lot of work as the ground game was non-existent in the first half with just 84 yards against the Football Championship Subdivision school. And even though FIU is one of the lower-echelon Football Bowl Subdivision clubs, the Golden Panthers have fared well in this type of situation in the past.
The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 in their FBS existence when getting two touchdowns or more at home. They also have not lost a home game by more than 10 points since the 2007 campaign, and that includes matchups with Troy and South Florida.
FIU sports a new quarterback this season as well. Wesley Carroll, who transferred from Mississippi State last year, has a bevy of top-notch receivers at his disposal, led by T.Y. Hilton, who is finally healthy after an injury- plagued 2009 season.
In order for the Scarlet Knights to gain a convincing victory, Tom Savage and the rest of the offense must show marked improvement from the previous game. And when you consider the fact the quarterback sports a 7-6 touchdown/interception ratio in his last seven games, it will be extremely difficult for the Knights to run away from the Panthers, especially in Miami.
Take FIU plus the points.
The second Five-Star play of the week is a matchup of the Mountain West versus the WAC.
San Diego State travels to New Mexico State after knocking off Nicholls State, 47-0. Defeating the Colonels by 47 isn't saying much considering Air Force crushed them by 72 last season, and the Falcons then proceeded to lose to Minnesota the following week.
Given the fact the Aztecs are 3-21 SU on the road over the last four years it is shocking they are such heavy favorites in Las Cruces.
New Mexico State began last season winning three of its first six games before dropping its final seven. The Aggies have an underrated offensive line and a running back in Seth Smith that ripped off over 1,000 yards last year. They also bring in a new quarterback, and more importantly, a new offensive coordinator to help revive the passing game.
These two teams met last season with San Diego State coming out on top, 34-17, with 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Since this will be New Mexico State's first game in 2010, the extra week of practice, along with the fact the game will be played at home, should help the Aggies to give the Aztecs all they can handle and then some.
Take New Mexico State plus the points.
THE LONE THREE-STAR PLAY
Texas A&M has been slowly but surely building back its program after hiring Mike Sherman as head coach prior to 2008, but the fruits of all the hard work will pay off in 2010. The Aggies opened the year with a victory over Stephen F. Austin and should easily make it 2-0 when they take on Louisiana Tech.
The Bulldogs are in the midst of a major change in offensive philosophy moving to the spread behind new head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Unfortunately, the transition was not too smooth in week one when the offense picked up just 26 total yards in the entire second half against Grambling. In fact, the team also gained only nine yards in its final four first-half possessions.
Furthermore, the road wasn't too kind to Louisiana Tech last season with seven losses in seven games, so don't expect much improvement down in College Station where the Aggies went 4-1 ATS as favorites last season.
Take Texas A&M minus the points.
TWO-STAR PLAYS
Go with three favorites and two underdogs in week two. Take LSU (over Vanderbilt), Iowa (against Iowa State), and Kentucky (versus Western Kentucky), along with Kansas (plus the points against Georgia Tech), and Arkansas State (plus the points versus Louisiana).
ONE-STAR CHOICES
Three plays highlight the One-Star selections this week. Go with UTEP (plus the points at Houston), Oklahoma State (minus the points versus Troy), and BYU (over Air Force).
AFTER ONE WEEK
Yours truly went 6-3-2 last week for a 64% winning percentage. Breaking the totals down by the star system, the Five-Star plays are 1-0, the Three-Star selections are 2-0-1, the Two-Star picks are 2-1-1, and the One-Star choices are 1-2.
As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are those games where my key selections and my "Power Numbers" match. The Three-Star choices are my personal picks, while the Two-Star plays are the "power number" picks - games with at least a five- point differential between my line and the actual line. Finally, the One-Star plays are my personal secondary selections.
THIS WEEK'S JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Ohio State, 101.5; 2) Boise State, 101; 3-T) Alabama and Oregon, 100.5; 5-T) Florida, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa, 98; 9) Texas, 97.5; 10) Oklahoma, 97; 11) LSU, 96.5; 12) Georgia, 96
<< Villanova football considering a move to the Big East
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Villanova is reportedly evaluating the
prospect of moving up to the highest level of college football.
The Philadelphia Daily News reports that the reigning Football Championship
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Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United has had plenty of
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"It's always a nightmar
<< Transfer Flowers cleared to play for Illinois State
Normal, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defensive back Bo Flowers, an Illinois transfer,
was cleared by the NCAA to compete immediately for the Illinois State
Redbirds, the team's athletic department announced.
Flowers, a graduate student at Illinois
<< Playoff Pickups
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's playoff time in the world of fantasy
baseball and if your lineup needs a little boost because some of your veterans
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Fortunate
South Carolina CB Culliver cleared >>
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Carolina senior cornerback Chris
Culliver will be back on the field when the Gamecocks host 22nd-ranked Georgia
on Saturday.
Culliver, who earned Second-Team All-SEC honors as a junior safety
Celtic aims to continue perfect start against Hearts >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Celtic welcomes Hearts to Parkhead
on Saturday the Hoops will not only be trying for their fourth win in four
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charge
Huber, Petrova reach U.S. Open doubles final >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A second-seeded tandem of American
Liezel Huber and Russian Nadia Petrova posted a semifinal victory Friday at
the 2010 U.S. Open.
Huber-Petrova reached the women's doubles finale with a 6-3,
Nadal, Federer will play U.S. Open SF matches Saturday >>
Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 1 stalwart Rafael Nadal
and former top-ranked superstar Roger Federer are on a collision course to
meet in Sunday's men's final at the 2010 U.S. Open. The two tennis greats
have never met he
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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